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Another poor prediction…

Three years ago Mr Hattsi declared that –

The weak authority of Bakiyev and the highly divided society indicate that Kyrgyzstan is perhaps closer to civil war than any other Central Asian state. However, this very lack of authority prevents Bakiyev from taking Kyrgyzstan upon an overwhelmingly pejorative trajectory. The presence of the most developed civil society in Central Asia has the ability to place checks upon the Kyrgyz authorities, whilst Bakiyev’s apparent willingness to effect some degree of positive change upon Kyrgyzstan are perhaps the two most significant developments if Kyrgyzstan is to avoid becoming a “failed” state.

…and now we have this. Unfortunately, the latest chaotic episode for a nation that specialises in pseudo-revolutions and disorder doesn’t have its origins in Kyrgyz civil society, but in an even more authoritarian opposition strengthened by support in the North of the country. This blog (ironically) predicts that conditions are likely to worsen for the foreseeable future – the Western media has largely treated the story as corrupt despotic leader overthrown by plucky and maltreated general populace who will now have the freedom to move towards our definition of democracy – they should be careful what they wish for.

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